Box Office Brawl: Running Man, Now You See Me 3, & Predator Badlands Fight for Weekend Crown

This weekend, multiplexes are gearing up for a thrilling three-way cinematic showdown. With a dystopian thriller reboot, a magical heist threequel, and a returning sci-fi action hit all vying for the top spot, moviegoers are in for a treat and analysts are on the edge of their seats!

TL;DR: The Weekend's Must-Know Box Office Buzz

• Glen Powell's high-budget "The Running Man" is making its R-rated debut, facing off against returning champion "Predator: Badlands" and the PG-13 illusionists of "Now You See Me: Now You Don't."
• Projections are wildly varied, with different sources predicting each of the top three contenders could snag the coveted No. 1 position, highlighting an incredibly tight race.
• "Keeper," a 70s-style horror flick from Oz Perkins, also hits theaters with a more modest budget and targeted audience, aiming for a niche but solid performance.

A Cinematic Cage Match: Which Film Will Claim the Weekend's Box Office Glory?

Imagine this: it's Friday night, popcorn in hand, and you're staring at the marquee. Do you plunge into a deadly reality game, marvel at a diamond-heist illusion, or dive back into alien-hunting action? That's the delicious dilemma facing moviegoers this weekend, as a trio of films are locked in a surprisingly tight battle for the North American Box Office crown.

This isn't just about bragging rights; it's about big money, studio strategies, and the ever-shifting tastes of audiences. Three major releases are heading into the weekend with serious ambitions, and the competition is so fierce that even the experts can't agree on who will ultimately come out on top.

The High-Stakes Reboot: Glen Powell's "The Running Man" Enters the Fray

Leading the charge into new releases is Paramount's ambitious remake of the 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger sci-fi flick, "The Running Man." This time, rising star Glen Powell takes on the role of Ben Richards, a working-class dad forced into a deadly, televised survival race for a staggering $1 billion prize to save his sick daughter. He's hunted for 30 days by professional assassins – a truly grim premise, but hey, a billion dollars is a billion dollars, right?

The film, co-financed by Domain, comes with a hefty $110 million budget, making its performance critical for Paramount and Powell's burgeoning leading-man status. It's hitting 3,400 domestic theaters, including 1,000 premium large-format (PLF) screens, with previews kicking off at 7 p.m. Thursday. Director Edgar Wright, known for his stylish flair in hits like "Baby Driver," helms this R-rated adaptation, which reportedly sticks closer to Stephen King's original 1982 novel (published under the pseudonym Richard Bachman).

Quote Box: "It’s better than Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 1987 version, but King’s prophetic tale of violence-as-entertainment-as-control has little future shock left." — Owen Gleiberman, Variety's chief film critic, on Edgar Wright's "The Running Man"

Early critical reception for "The Running Man" has been mixed, currently sitting at around 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. While some praise Wright's muscular reboot, others, like Variety's Owen Gleiberman, feel the story's "future shock" has waned. The R-rating is a double-edged sword: it allows for a grittier, more faithful adaptation of King's dystopian vision, but it inherently limits the potential audience compared to PG-13 releases. This film is a major test for Wright, too, following his "biggest failure" with "Last Night in Soho" which earned only $23 million worldwide against a $43 million budget. Source: [World of Reel, "Empire City Box Office sounding the alarm on weak pre-sales for Edgar Wright’s ‘The Running Man.’"]

The Illusions Return: "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Aims for a Magical Win

Hot on "The Running Man's" heels, and perhaps even neck-and-neck in some predictions, is Lionsgate's "Now You See Me: Now You Don't." This $90M+ threequel brings back our favorite thieving illusionists, the Four Horsemen, for another diamond heist, this time targeting dangerous criminals. Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Isla Fisher, and Morgan Freeman all reprise their roles, with Ariana Greenblatt and Rosamund Pike joining the magic.

Ruben Fleischer, known for "Venom" and "Zombieland," takes the director's chair for this installment. The "Now You See Me" franchise has a history of resonating strongly with audiences, especially overseas. The first film grossed $350 million globally, and the second, in 2016, pulled in $334.8 million worldwide, notably with $97 million coming from China alone. Source: [Deadline, "Running Man, Now You See Me Now You Don't and Predator Badlands", Nov 12, 2025]. However, Hollywood films have faced challenges in the Middle Kingdom post-pandemic, so replicating that success might be tough.

This film is positioned as a "date night" and "family" movie, largely due to its PG-13 rating, which gives it a broader appeal than the R-rated "Running Man." It's opening in 3,300 North American cinemas and 64 overseas territories, with previews starting bright and early at 2 p.m. Thursday. Critics have given it mixed notices (61% on Rotten Tomatoes), but that's actually an improvement over the previous films' scores (NYSM had 51%, NYSM2 a "rotten" 34%). Variety's Gleiberman described it as "all in good fun," suggesting it delivers exactly what fans expect. Source: [Variety, "Box Office: 'Running Man,' 'Now You See Me 3' Vie for No. 1 Over 'Predator: Badlands'", Nov 12, 2025].

Defending Champion: "Predator: Badlands" Clings to the Podium

Not to be forgotten is last weekend's reigning champion, 20th Century Studios' "Predator: Badlands." After a franchise-best $40 million domestic debut, this action-packed sequel is entering its second weekend aiming to continue its strong run. It made an impressive $5.7 million on Veterans Day Tuesday, bringing its five-day total to $49.2 million. Source: [Deadline, "Running Man, Now You See Me Now You Don't and Predator Badlands", Nov 12, 2025].

The film has garnered excellent audience reception, boasting an A- CinemaScore – the highest ever for the "Predator" franchise – and a robust 78% PostTrak definite recommend. Its PG-13 rating is also a significant factor, potentially allowing it to retain a wider audience compared to the R-rated "Running Man." While heavily male-skewing, it did manage to attract women over 25, who accounted for 22% of its audience last weekend. Source: [SSBCrack News, "Paramount’s The Running Man Remake Aims for Box Office Victory Amidst Competition from Predator: Badlands", Nov 13, 2025].

Current projections for its second weekend vary, from $15 million to $22 million, reflecting a typical 50-60% drop from its strong opening. The big question is whether its positive word-of-mouth will help it outperform standard sophomore weekend declines and potentially hold off the new challengers. There's a curious dynamic with it competing against "The Running Man," both originating from 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger vehicles.

The Quiet Contender: Neon's "Keeper" Offers a Different Flavor

For those seeking something a bit darker and more atmospheric, Neon is releasing Oz Perkins' third genre title, "Keeper." This horror film, described as a throwback to 1970s classics like "Rosemary's Baby," stars Tatiana Maslany and Rossif Sutherland as a couple whose romantic anniversary trip to a secluded cabin turns sinister. They are forced to confront the property’s haunted past, a classic setup for some chilling scares.

"Keeper" is launching in 1,950 theaters, but with a significantly smaller footprint and budget compared to the blockbusters. Its production cost was $6 million, with a $4 million global pickup price tag, and marketing spend is under $10 million. Projections place its opening in the low single digits. While Perkins' previous films ("Longlegs" and "The Monkey") had stronger openings, "Keeper" is a targeted release, particularly appealing to women under 25, according to tracking data.

Why This Weekend's Box Office Race Is So Captivatingly Unpredictable

This weekend's box office isn't just a simple tally; it's a fascinating study in audience behavior, marketing muscle, and the unpredictable nature of film releases. The projections themselves highlight this volatility:

• "The Running Man" is projected to open anywhere from $15 million to $25 million, with some outlets like Weekend Warrior putting it at #1 with $24.2M, while Empire City Box Office reports "weak pre-sales" and a lower $17-$18M opening.
• "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" has an even wider range, from ScreenRant's predicted $14.9 million (placing it 3rd) to Empire City's $25M+ estimate, which would comfortably put it in first place.
• "Predator: Badlands" is predicted to land between $15 million and $22.8 million for its second weekend, with its strong word-of-mouth a key factor in its hold.

This is where the rubber meets the road. Each film has unique strengths and weaknesses. "The Running Man" banks on Glen Powell's star power and Edgar Wright's vision but grapples with an R-rating and potentially lagging pre-sales. "Now You See Me 3" leverages franchise familiarity and a broad PG-13 appeal, but might face a decline in its crucial overseas markets. "Predator: Badlands" has proven audience love but needs to overcome the typical second-weekend dip against fresh competition.

Navigating the Unseen Variables: Counterpoints and Considerations

It's easy to look at pre-sales and initial tracking, but the box office often throws curveballs. One limitation of early projections is that they can't fully account for last-minute decisions or strong walk-up business. For example, a group of friends might see a killer trailer on social media on Friday morning and decide impulsively to catch "The Running Man" that night, bypassing pre-purchase metrics entirely. This unexpected surge could easily bump numbers up past conservative estimates.

Another counterpoint is the power of word-of-mouth. "Predator: Badlands" already has an A- CinemaScore and 78% PostTrak definite recommend, signals of strong audience satisfaction. For a new release like "The Running Man," if early screenings or Thursday previews generate explosive, positive buzz on social media, that organic excitement could rapidly change its trajectory, attracting viewers who might have been on the fence. Conversely, negative word-of-mouth can just as quickly derail a film, regardless of initial projections.

Example: The Executive's Early Friday Morning

Consider Sarah, a studio executive, on a Friday morning. Her alarm buzzes at 6 AM. She immediately grabs her phone, not for coffee, but to check early Thursday night preview numbers. The numbers are a mixed bag. "The Running Man" is tracking a bit softer than hoped, perhaps $1 million below expectations. "Now You See Me 3" is doing slightly better, but "Predator: Badlands" surprisingly held stronger than predicted. She knows these are just preview figures, a small snapshot, but they set the tone for the entire weekend. Her next move? A flurry of calls to marketing to see if they can pivot quickly, perhaps emphasizing a strong review or a specific crowd-pleasing scene that resonated with preview audiences, hoping to sway weekend decisions.

The Calm Before a "Wicked" Storm: Looking Ahead

While this weekend's battle is fierce, it's also worth noting that the film industry is already looking ahead to a potential box office behemoth. "Wicked: For Good," the sequel to the highly successful 2024 "Wicked," is looming large. The first "Wicked" film debuted with a tremendous $112.5 million and went on to gross $473.2 million domestically and $756.5 million worldwide against a $150 million budget. Source: [ScreenRant, "The Calm Before The Wicked Box Office Storm", Undated]. "Wicked: For Good" is already Fandango's biggest PG pre-seller of all time and the highest overall for 2025, signaling that the current competitive frame might just be the quiet before a much, much bigger storm.

Frequently Asked Questions About This Weekend's Movies When do "The Running Man" and "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" start previews? "The Running Man" previews begin Thursday at 7 p.m. local time, while "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" starts earlier on Thursday at 2 p.m. local time. What are the ratings for the top contenders? "The Running Man" is rated R, while "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" and "Predator: Badlands" both carry a PG-13 rating. Where can I watch these movies? All films mentioned are currently releasing in wide theatrical runs across North America, with "The Running Man" in 3,400 locations and "Now You See Me 3" in 3,300 locations. Is "The Running Man" related to the original Arnold Schwarzenegger movie? Yes, it's a new adaptation of the same 1982 Stephen King novel that inspired the 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger film, though this version reportedly adheres more closely to the book. Practical Takeaways for Your Weekend Movie Plans

• Pick Your Genre: Whether you're into dystopian action, magical heists, monster hunts, or psychological horror, there's a fresh option for every taste this weekend.
• Consider the Crowd: PG-13 options like "Now You See Me 3" and "Predator: Badlands" are likely to draw broader family and date-night audiences, while the R-rated "The Running Man" caters to mature viewers.
• Word-of-Mouth Matters: Pay attention to early social media buzz, especially for "The Running Man," as critical and audience reactions could quickly shift its box office trajectory.
• Expect a Tight Race: Don't be surprised if the top spot changes hands throughout the weekend; this is one of the most competitive frames in recent memory.

Sources

• Deadline, "Running Man, Now You See Me Now You Don't and Predator Badlands," November 12, 2025.
• Boxoffice Pro, "The Boxoffice Podium," November 14, 2025.
• Variety, "Box Office: 'Running Man,' 'Now You See Me 3' Vie for No. 1 Over 'Predator: Badlands'," November 12, 2025.
• World of Reel, "Empire City Box Office sounding the alarm on weak pre-sales for Edgar Wright’s ‘The Running Man.’," Undated.
• ScreenRant, "Glen Powell's The Running Man Box Office Prediction," Undated.
• The Weekend Warrior Newsletter, "Box Office Predictions November 14, 2025," November 12, 2025.
• SSBCrack News, "Paramount’s The Running Man Remake Aims for Box Office Victory Amidst Competition from Predator: Badlands", November 13, 2025.