The Mariners' schedule for the second half: Why a "middle-road" slate might be their hardest test yet

Let's be honest: the Seattle Mariners needed a break after barely making it to the All-Star break with a wild card slot. But what now? The grind starts up again with a schedule that appears easy on paper but may show every flaw in this team's foundation. Yes, Tankathon says that the teams they still have to play have a win percentage of .498, which is in the middle of the pack and makes them the 19th-easiest team in MLB. But every Mariners fan knows that nothing is simple in the Emerald City, and this schedule is a wolf in sheep's clothes.

The Schedule's False Sense of Mercy: Soft Spots Hide Hard Gauntlets

June is a minefield that looks like a baseball month.

I understand. Seeing series versus the Athletics, White Sox, and Rockies should seem like a break. And certainly, based on their record, they provide you a chance to rack up some victories. You can't just look at the calendar and feel better, though. The Rangers may still be getting used to one other, but they're not prey; they're hurt predators. The Twins are back on the rise, the Cubs are hitting hard, and even the Guardians and Red Sox, who are coming to T-Mobile this month, won't be easy to beat. This period in June feels never-ending because the "easy" wins are like islands in a sea of teams that want to take advantage of Seattle's uneven offense.

It felt like waiting for a spark that only flashed while the Mariners slogged through the first half. In June, the offense had a slash line of .265/.311/.385, which was good for a 102 wRC+. Fine, okay. Not too bad, not too good, right? But it was really bad when the pitching staff gave up 5.11 runs per game (opponents hit .247/.325/.444, 115 wRC+). If your squad is leaking oil, a middle-ground timetable won't help you. Right now, the Cubs' offense is tough to deal with. Because they aren't always the same? It's scary.

Seattle's Real Schedule Nightmare: The Astros' Looming Shadow

Houston's easy win shows how hard Seattle has to fight.

This is where the math for the schedule really hurts. Seattle has a schedule that is about average for the league, but what about their division opponent, the Houston Astros? They're looking at the easiest schedule left in baseball, with opponents who have only won 46.6% of their games. Six more games against the Rockies? Eleven games against the Athletics, who are the poorest team in the league? It's like a golden ticket. Sure, Chicago shocked them recently by winning three out of four games, but let's be honest: the odds are very much in Houston's favor to take advantage of that gift. This difference makes Seattle's "manageable" approach into a high-wire act. Every mistake against a mediocre opponent hurts worse because you know Houston is probably expanding their lead versus Triple-A level teams. It's not just about the games Seattle plays; it's also about how much time Houston has to prepare ready.

The Pitching Equation: Can the Arms Save the Season?

Gilbert's Comeback Depends on the Offense Doing Its Job

Do you remember when the Mariners' rotation seemed like an unfair cheat code? Without a fully healthy and strong Logan Gilbert throughout parts of the first half, Luis Castillo's defense showed how weak it really was. Bryce Miller looked like a person, Bryan Woo had trouble being consistent, and asking Logan Evans to fill the gap was a big ask. It is really important to get Gilbert back to his best. But here's the gut punch: even great pitching might not be enough if the offense keeps failing. There are games on the schedule when 3 runs won't be enough, especially because Houston is doing well in other places. We saw some good offensive plays right before the break, but this squad has trouble staying consistent. Can they suddenly turn it on against pitchers like Philadelphia or Detroit who are good enough for the playoffs? I don't believe it.

False Dawn in July and August: More Problems Ahead

The story suggests things get easier in the middle of summer. I'm not buying it all at once. In July, Seattle has to play the Yankees, Tigers, and those darn Astros in a nightmare AL leaderboard tour. There are also series between the Pirates, Angels, A's, and Rangers. It should be a chance to relax on paper to play 11 games against that last group. But if you look closer, the Pirates aren't pushovers anymore, the Angels ride Mike Trout's daily quest for immortality, and Texas is still the defending champion. August has nine games versus the White Sox, Texas, and Oakland. Again, chances? Yes, for sure. But betting on sweeps against any club that might ruin things is risky—just ask Houston how that Chicago series went. It appears like September will be a lot easier (Angels, Braves?) Rockies?), but if Seattle hasn't made any progress by then, it might feel like it's too late.

I really want to think that this strong core can make it through one more push. It's a dream come true that Julio Rodriguez is getting better. Cal Raleigh is playing like a superstar catcher. Put it in my veins. But hope isn't a plan, and this schedule, which looks like a normal one, needs the 2025 Mariners to be consistent and clutch, which they haven't been for more than a few games. You can only beat middle-tier teams if you do it all the time. Seattle has a bad reputation of playing down to its opponents, so that .498 opponent win percentage feels more like a minefield than a meadow.

The Mariners will play Texas in a very important series that starts on Friday, July 12. The first pitch is at 7:10 PM PST. Get ready. The trip to the second half starts with no room for mistakes.